A Glance At Speculative Thinking; Or, A Thought For Oumuamua

My favorite example, of speculative thought.

Is when Seth Shostak, in his lighthearted way,

Explains, and I paraphrase...

When building the first radio, it is difficult to hold a soldering iron.

When all you have, is tentacles.

But speculative thought, comes with some rules.

It must stand as conjecture only, unless you have hard evidence.

And if you have something big, it must be reviews by well educated by peers.

And the outcomes of your observations or experiments, must be reliably reproducible.

The 1989 Cold Fusion Announcement by Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons.

Demonstrates the importance of peer review, and reliable reproducibility.

I do not think that speculative thinking, can end badly.

But for completion sake, I want to show you a scene from A Beautiful Mind.

Where a young lady runs in a park, without startling the pigeons.

I repeat, the pigeons did not see her.

I never watched the movie, but I find this scene to be particularly powerful.

In my Coffee Shop days, I have come across three alarming events.

That dealt, with unrestricted belief.

In the first event, paid a large amount of money for Psychic reading.

When I asked her not to, she replied, that she appreciated to hear what she wanted to hear.

Then a boy of maybe 20 years old, spoke about sugar faires stealing sugar in his house.

His mother was presumably into new age stuff, and thought it cute to convince the boy of their existence.

In his uneducation and isolation, and his mothers appreciation of Cottingley Fairies

A more than hundred year old prank, by Elsie and Frances.

He became scary, if not unhinged, it wasn't cure or funny at all.

And I recall, a quite a scary event, or a middle aged man listening to static on the radio.

Stating something to the like of, "I can hear them".

If he wasn't seriously ill, then he was just hearing other radio stations.

Or any kind of broadcast, it certainly wasn't "them".

I want to mention that Ufology, is not a science.

It is a precursor to religion, maybe.

If there is enough people, willing to pay, then a cult will emerge.

But I do want to underline, that Ufology is great for understanding how cults form.

It is not a religion yet, but it is the match to getting one started.

Jill Tarter of the SETI Institute, once stated, and I again paraphrase twisting her statements out of shape.

That if we don't pick up a signal in the next three years, then we need to improve our search.

Those are not her exact words, but her gut feeling is precious.

She is a serious scientist, and a wonderful earthling.

Carl Sagan, who famously based the character of Ellie, on Jill Tarter in his Contact.

Stated in his Demon Haunted world, that believing in UFO is sad.

Because real Science, is far more colorful and fascinating.

Now, having said that, speculative thinking is a form of art.

And it allows us, to ask some incredible questions.

That often result in art, poetry, books, and real inventions.

For example, we can ask, if Oumuamua was in-fact a star ship.

What would be on it, dust, I would venture.

But you are writing a book, you could ask:

What kind of a crew would it carry, and I think the answer could be machine-like.

A neural network that learns to recognize, patterns common to civilizations.

And then deliver a message, a radio signal is far more efficient.

A star ship, or an installation on an asteroid, would carry technology.

Something that is not possible, to transmit over a radio.

Perhaps advanced biology, a way to interface with biological entities.

Heal, transform, permanently extend life.

And extend, an invitation.

Realistically speaking, the little things are the ones that are most likely.

I would say that Oumuamua is simply an asteroid, but some day, perhaps with the SETI Institute...

Mounting a Dish on the dark side of the moon, away from leaky microwave ovens.

There will be a signal, a pattern that can only be made by a civilization.

And then the world will come together, to build an antenna enormous enough...

To try to capture, something that presents an undeniable proof.

Of very distant, technologically advanced beings.

With a radio signal, and how stupidly slow the speed of light really is.

It will just be a one way message, likely from a civilization that has long moved on.

In the end the nosy message, will just say that we are not alone.

It is not just a waste of space, but very odd that life should just emerge once.

I will leave you with this thought, Mars and Earth sent rocks back and forth...

For billions of years, due to asteroid-impact ejecta.

Now think about he rocks that missed Mars, and the fact, that all the chemicals that make a human.

Are already spread thought the Universe, there are countless proteins, chemicals, water molecules...

All mingling together, thorough the universe.

And for those of you, unsatisfied or disenchanted with my thoughts on Oumuamua.

Maybe it is a monument, to all the civilizations that have come and gone.

One propelled between solar systems likely to host life, like a tennis ball.

Its primary objective is not to deliver a message, but to ask for one.

A thick large heavy metal plaque, sure to survive for the life of the universe.

So that should our civilization ever fade, our greatest thought will still travel...

Along with all the many others, that were already placed on the asteroid.

If I had to make a suggestion, I'd vote for Gnoti Seauton, it is Greek, for Know Thyself.